Reps JM, Kim C, Williams RD, Markus AF, Yang C, Salles TD, Falconer T, Jonnagaddala J, Williams A, Fernandez-Bertolin S, DuVall SL, Kostka K, Rao G, Shoaibi A, Ostropolets A, Spotnitz ME, Zhang L, Casajust P, Steyerberg E, Nyberg F, Kaas-Hansen BS, Choi YH, Morales D, Liaw S-T, Abrahao MTF, Areia C, Matheny ME, Aragon M, Park RW, Hripcsak G, Reich CG, Suchard MA, You SC, Ryan PB, Prieto-Alhambra D, Rijnbeek PR. Can we trust the prediction model? Demonstrating the importance of external validation by investigating the COVID-19 Vulnerability (C-19) Index across an international network of observational healthcare datasets. medRxiv. 2020:2020.06.15.20130328.
Background: SARS-CoV-2 is straining healthcare systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate between patients requiring hospitalization and those who do not. The COVID-19 vulnerability (C-19) index, a model that predicts which patients will be admitted to hospital for treatment of pneumonia or pneumonia